Forex Trading Signals for 12/07/2007
Hi there 
If you prefer to listen to this email in an audible format, here is the youtube link for it:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GGVn-H576eI
If you do decide to listen to this signal on youtube, I would appreciate if you could at least submit a rating of it there, and perhaps even leave a comment if you have time.
Let’s first review what happened earlier today.
There was only one report we were watching and possibly trading: Australian unemployment. It was expected to come out 15,000. I told you if it comes out at zero or negative, it would be a possible sell on AUD/USD, good for 35 pips or more. Well, the employment came out around 3,000, I believe, it was a little bit shy of hitting my trigger but still it was worse than it was expected. We saw a drop on AUD/USD by almost 40 pips immediately. This whole spike happened within the first five seconds. I was waiting for the retracement in order to be able to get in around 8620 short, and as you could see, the price went to about 8619 so I was shy by about 1 pip of being executed here. That’s not a big deal because the move did not continue much. As I said yesterday, this particular report if it makes a spike and you could not get in with a decent price on the retracement, it is not worth the risk since it may not continue that much. This is exactly what happened here, and, of course, it did not hit my trigger.
Let’s now talk about what is going on tomorrow, Thursday.
1. Thursday, July 12th, 2007 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
At 8:30 a.m. NY time we will have a trade balance coming out of the United States, and we will have a trade balance coming out of Canada as well. I personally will be focusing on the Canadian trade balance since Canada is a huge exporter, and therefore Canadian trade balance is a lot more important. Because of recent things happening with the Canadian dollar and their interest rates, I think Canadian trade balance tomorrow is going to be one of the most crucial trade balance reading this year so I think we can see a very nice volatility. Basically, the trade balance is expected to slow from previous reading of 5.8 billion to about 5.5 billion. They are expecting it to slow because higher Canadian dollar is expected to mute the manufacturing activity a little bit. If for some reason the trade balance comes out at 5.9 billion or higher, it would actually signify that it increased versus previous month, and I think even on such small deviation we may see EUR/CAD going down by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if the trade balance comes out below 5 billion, it would be bad for the Canadian dollar, and we may see EUR/CAD going up by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. Of course, the bigger the deviation the bigger the move probably we will see. Be careful with USD/CAD as we will have the U.S. Trade Balance at the same time in the USA.
SUMMARY:
* Report: Canadian Trade Balance
* SELL on EUR/CAD if the number will be 5.9 B or higher
* BUY on EUR/CAD if the number will be below 5 B
* If the trigger is hit, expect 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report.
2. Thursday, July 12th, 2007 (10:30 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
Then, at 10:30 a.m. New York time we will have bank of Canada monetary policy report. I personally will not be trading that report simply because we just got Bank of Canada report on the last interest rate statement, just a couple of days ago. I highly doubt there will be anything new on this monetary policy report, and I think watching it would be just a waste of time. Be aware of possible volatility during that time.
3. Thursday, July 12th, 2007 (6:45 p.m. New York Time) NEW ZEALAND
Then, at 6:45 p.m. New York time, will have a retail sales coming out of New Zealand. It is expected that New Zealand retail sales will come out 0.5% after a huge drop last month to -1.2%. That report has a little bit of important timing because in about a week, I believe on July 21st, around that time, Bank of New Zealand will be releasing their interest rates statement. There is about 20% chance that the New Zealand may hike the rate. So this retail sales would be highly scrutinized, and it may even give a reason to hike interest rates. Basically, if they come out at 0.3% or lower, it would be a low reading after last month low reading, and we may possibly see NZD/USD going down by 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if the retail sales come out at 0.8% or higher, we may see NZD/USD going up but 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. How sustained the move will be will highly depend on the deviation, and the price levels right before the report will be crucial as well.
SUMMARY:
* Report: New Zealand Retail Sales
* SELL on NZD/USD if the number will be 0.3% or lower
* BUY on NZD/USD if the number will be 0.8% or higher
* If the trigger is hit, expect 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report.
I suggest that you will go to http://www.forexdiamonds.com as I just updated that website. This is my live trading service, and I suggest you to read everything on that page. I wrote a lot about my philosophy of trading the news, and I think you would learn a lot from there.
Also, let’s quickly review how Rob Grespi from www.KingForexSignals.com did yesterday. He had a great day yesterday; he took only two trades. The first one was good for about 28 pips, and the other was profitable for about 48 pips. He ended the day with about 76 profit pips profit which is pretty nice after 100 pips profit he had on the position trade the day before. This brought his performance for this month to 247 pips so far.
That’s all for tomorrow. I hope you will have a great day. Thank you!
To Our Success!