Hello there 🙂
1. Tuesday, April 24th, 2007 (4:30 am New York Time) UK
We have a very important testimony coming out of UK. Bank of England officials will be testifying to the government officials about their policy plans, et cetera. That can affect the pound (GBP) big time. I can’t tell you exactly what to look at…but basically if BOE officials are hinting towards two more rate hikes or more, GBP/USD may possibly go up by 100 pips or more in the first 3 hours of the report. If the BOE officials are saying that all they want to do is one rate hike, and they want to see what happens for a while, before doing second one, GBP/USD may either possibly go down by 50 pips or more, or even stay the same, because it is currently under 1.9980, and I am not sure if US dollar is strong enough to pull it much more down. So if you dont’ know what you are doing, I recommend staying out.
2. Tuesday, April 24th, 2007 (9:00 am New York Time) CANADA
Then we have Canadian interest rate statement coming out, which I think will be a complete waste of time, they are not in a position to either cut or hike, and they’ve been talking too much, on how much they love the current level of interest, and how well it currently fits with the economy, so most likely it’ll stay the same at 4.25%, so I am not even going to trade this statement. If you are to watch it, then if for some reason the rate is hiked to 4.50%, USD/CAD may possibly go down by 100 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If the rate is cut to 4.0%, USD/CAD may possibly go up by 100 pips or more in the first hour of the report.
3. Tuesday, April 24th, 2007 (10:00 am New York Time) USA
Then we have two reports coming out of the US. We have US existing home sales, and US consumer confidence. Both are extremely important at this particular moment in the US economy, but generally speaking, surprises out of housing are rare, while the US consumer confidence is a very volatile indicator, which may very well surprised, so my focus will be on that. Consumer confidence in the US is heavily affected by gas prices. When people pay less for gasoline, they are confident, but when the prices are high, they are not confident…it’s funny how that works. Due to oil prices getting higher and higher, it’s generally expected that consumer confidence will come out at 105.0 versus 107.2 back in March. If consumer confidence comes out at 108.0 or higher, it would be shockingly good for the US dollar, so GBP/USD may possibly go down by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If consumer confidence comes out at 100.0 or below, it would be the lowest reading since end of 2005, so GBP/USD may possibly go up by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. Housing numbers do mean a lot too. If existing home sales, that are expected at around 6.40 million, if they conflict by 0.20 or more, I would be looking to exit this trade rather sooner than later, we definitely don’t want a conflict on the confidence and existing home sales, because it would be hard to predict what the market might do.
That’s pretty all for tomorrow 🙂 I hope we make some pips, and I’ll talk to you tomorrow, Tuesday night.
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