BuyForexSignals.com

Hi there
 
I hope you are having a good day.  I am having a terrible day, due to a terrible trade that happened on the UK GDP.  Let’s review what happened.
 
Today we had two tradable reports.  We had the UK GDP and the New Zealand interest rate statement.  I gave you triggers for the UK GDP of +0.2 and -0.2, which weren’t hit, so it should’ve been a no trade according to my signal.  After further research and looking at price action, I realized that even if the number comes out at 0.9% on the GDP, it should be a good long on the pound.  We had a conflicting BOE minutes report that came out at the same time.  I told people in my room that in case BOE conflicts, we may see some opposite price volatility, but a strong GDP reading should pull the pound out, and we should see a strong up-move.  The reading came out at 0.9% and gave a long signal on GBP/USD.  However, BOE minutes revealed a shocking vote on last interest rate hike of 5:4, versus 8:1 expected.  That was such a huge shock, that the pound spiked down by well over 50 pips.  I traded the GBP/JPY pair, and with the high spread, saw an immediate loss of around -80 pips on my account.  I expected some volatility, but not so much, so I panicked, forgot about our plan to hold on the position and let GDP pull us out, and closed my trade for a large loss.  Then as I saw pound rebounding, I bought again at the bottom, and made a quick +33 pips, which was a small gain, considering that the pound rebounded back on GBP/JPY by over +165 pips.  I just didn’t have the nerve to hold on, it was too crazy and too frustrating.  About 65% of my subscribers in the room took a large loss with me, others sticked to the plan we set earlier and held on to their position for a profit.  Considering that I traded two units on this trade, so it’s like that -45 pips was a double, so -90 pips, so I saw a drawdown of 10.5% on my account after this trade, which is really nothing, considering that I basically tripled my account in the last 2 months.  I was just very upset about the fact that I got too emotional with the exit and didn’t stick to my own plan, and of course because so many of my subscribers took such large loss together with me.  That just felt horrible.
 
Then we had New Zealand interest rate come out.  New Zealand kept the rates unchanged, so it was a no trade.  However, Bollard made some extremely hawkish comments, saying directly that another interest rate hike is likely.  NZD/USD had a very nice and slow move up by +65 pips.  I personally bought NZD/USD at 0.6959, but after such negative day, I was too nervous giving a live signal to my subscribers based on a speech, since speeches are generally more risky than indicators.  I prefer to stick to the easy non-conflicting economic indicators for the next week or two, and get everybody’s confidence and accounts back on track.
 
Rob Grespi had a very bad day also.  He started off with a great trade, that profited +30 pips total, but after a bunch of small losers and winners, he finished the day with a -16 pips loss.  Though this loss may seem insignificant to some, it was the biggest loss for Rob in more than 2 months.  That brought his performance down for January to +762 pips total.
 
Okay, enough about the miserable day.  Let’s talk about what’s going on tomorrow.
 
1.  Thursday, January 25th, 2007 (4:00 am New York Time) GERMANY
We have German IFO index coming out.  We have three numbers coming out.  Generally they don’t conflict, and the main number is the main German IFO business climate, which is expected at 109.  If the number comes out at 110 or higher, it would be the highest reading in many years, and I may possibly go long on EUR/USD.  If the number comes out at 106.7 or lower, it would be a big drop from previous reading of 108.7, and it would be below the reading before that at 106.8, so I may possibly go short on EUR/USD.  This trade may take 10 to 15 minutes to fully manifest, and I wouldn’t expect a move of more than 30 pips on this one. 
 
2.  Thursday, January 25th, 2007 (10:00 am New York Time) USA
Then we have Existing Home Sales coming out of the U.S.  This is a very steady and accurately calculated indicator, so the deviations from consensus are usually minimal.  Expectations are 6.25M, versus 6.28M last month.  If the number comes out at 6.5M or higher, that would mean a growth in home sales by a whopping 4%, so it could be good for the dollar, so I may possibly go short on GBP/USD short term.  A number of 5.99M or lower would be a huge drop in housing, and would possibly be bad for the dollar, so I may possibly go long on GBP/USD.
 
3.  Thursday, January 25th, 2007 (6:30 pm New York Time) JAPAN
We have CPI figures coming out of Japan.  We have ten different numbers coming out, and who knows which one is going to be released first, and which one is going to be released last.  The most important number is probably Tokyo CPI, excluding food, which is expected to come out at 0.2%.  Trading Japanese reports is very tricky, especially the CPI.  A couple of months ago, their CPI was high, which allowed international countries to put pressure on Japan to raise interest rates.  So what did the Japanese do?  They simply removed some of the items from their CPI basket, which were causing most inflation, so they came up with a new number.  So when the number was released, it read extremely low, and in parenthesis, it had the number according to their old standards, which was as expected.  Extremely confusing, and if confusing equals risky in trading forex news.  So the main focus is Tokyo core CPI, and National Core CPI, and both are expected at 0.2%.  If any of these numbers come out at 0.4%, it would mean that the inflation is high, and would put further pressure for Japanese government to hike the rate, and it would be strengthening for the yen.  If the reading is at 0% or lower, then a rate hike will probably not come for a while, so it would be weakening for the yen.  I personally won’t even set up the Secret News Weapon for this trade.  I’ll just look at the numbers, and act on the first one that I see first, assuming that it gives such big deviation.  If you are confused, please stay out of trading this report.
 
That’s all for tomorrow :)  If you wanted to get into my live trading news room, I will be taking a few people tomorrow, Thursday at 11:00 pm New York Time at a heavy discount.  If you want to receive the link, please make sure you are on the waiting list, which can be joined through this link:
http://www.forexdiamonds.com/join.htm
 
To Our Success!
-Felix Homogratus

1617 Broadway St., Suite 1001
New York, NY 10002
USA

This entry was posted on Thursday, January 25th, 2007 at 8:43 am and is filed under BuyForexSignals. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.