Forex Signals for 01/19/2007
Hi there 
Â
Shoot…time freaking flies…it’s already Friday’s signal, and I feel like I just wrote Monday’s signal yesterday. I guess that’s what happens when you really love doing something, and I absolutely love trading forex news :)Â
Â
It’s been pretty crappy week so far. Pretty much no good trades, at least with the news. So let’s review what happened earlier today, and actually last night.
Â
So to begin, let’s talk about what happened with the Japan interest rate announcement yesterday. It was widely expected that Japan will hike the rate, but as Japan session opened, and Japan press started talking about the governmental pressures that the Bank of Japan was experiencing, that consensus reversed, and we had the yen weaken considerably before the announcement. So the announcement itself didn’t cause any big spikes, however the yen still weakened quite a few pips, but it simply took it a few hours to manifest after the announcement. So I just scalped off a few pips on this report, but definitely not as much as I expected.
Â
Earlier today, we had U.S. CPI coming out. The core monthly number came out exactly as expected, so it was a no trade. Housing numbers that came out at the same time were better than expected, so we saw a drop of about 40 pips or so in GBP/USD. Unfortunately, I didn’t take advantage of that, because it didn’t hit my trigger. Rob Grespi however, pretty much squeezed out every pip out of that move. More on that later. Then we had the Philly Fed come out, it also didn’t hit my trigger, that didn’t cause anything big. Then we had New Zealand retail sales come out. I was looking for a trigger at -0.3% or more negative, though I did warn people in my room before the trade that a reading as low as -0.2% would probably move the New Zealand dollar significantly. I was planning to use less conservative trigger, unfortunately didn’t have enough time to setup my secret news weapon properly, didn’t have enough time, talked too long in the room :) So I missed this move. Few people in my room made some money, but officially it was a no trade, so the majority didn’t take it. We did see a move of over 50 pips in the AUD/NZD pair, and about 40 pips or so in the NZD/USD pair. You can watch live trading video of that trade by going to this link:
http://forexdiamonds.com/performance.htm
Â
Rob Grespi from kingforexsignals.com had a fantastic day today. He took 9 trades, 7 of which were winners, making a total of +102 pips total, which brought his performance for the month to +782 total. He took a fantastic trade few minutes before the CPI report, because he saw some long dollar orders piling up, probably from a few players that had some inside info. So he took a trade which profited +54 pips total between the two units. You can watch his live trading videos by going to this link:
http://www.kingforexsignals.com/robtrades0107.htm
Â
Okay, tomorrow is an easy day. We don’t have anything big like we usually have on Fridays :) That’s unfortunate, because I love going off for the weekend, knowing that I made a bunch of money on Friday. But there still might be a few opportunities.
Â
1. Friday, January 19th, 2007 (4:30 am New York Time) UK
We have UK retail sales coming out for the month of December. The expected number is at 0.6%, which is a huge jump after an already positive November at 0.3%, which followed an amazing boost in October by 0.9%. If the number comes out at 0.8% or higher, it would be good for the pound, so I may possibly go long on GBP/USD. If the number comes out at 0.3% or lower, it would be a bad Christmas month for the UK, so I may possibly go short on GBP/USD. If my triggers are hit, I believe that GBP/USD will probably move by around 30 pips or more. If the deviation is higher, we might see a move of about 50 pips. To be honest, I don’t remember seeing a move bigger than 50 pips on the retail sales, even when the deviations were crazy. Like in October of last year, we saw a deviation of -0.8% from consensus, and the pound moved by about 57 pips or so, but it took around 20 minutes for that move to fully unfold. So if deviation is small, I would shoot for 30 pips, if the deviation is big, I would shoot for about 50 pips. Let’s keep it real.Â
Â
2. Friday, January 19th, 2007 (9:45 am New York Time) USA
Then we have University of Michigan consumer confidence coming out of the U.S. Most news services will release this report at 10:00 am, however special paid subscribers to University of Michigan telephone conferencing, will get it at 9:45 am. I will receive this report through my audible news service at 9:45 am, and will give an audible signal to my forexdiamonds subscribers only. There will be no Secret News Weapon on this, simply because the big news services, like bloomberg, reuters, cnbc, dow jones, or any other big names will have this data for the public 15 minutes too late. The expectation of the consumer confidence is at around 92. A reading of 95 or above, would signify the highest reading since July 2005 when the U.S. economy market and housing were booming, and therefore would be bullish for the dollar short term, so I may possibly go short on GBP/USD. A reading of 89 or below would dump the consumer confidence reading below the 90s level, which it was steadily reading throughout the whole fourth quarter of 2006, therefore a reading of 89 or below would be bearish for the dollar, so I may possibly go long on GBP/USD. This report may take its time to manifest. So I would be very patient, and may allow the price to manifest itself within 5 to 10 minutes after the mainstream scheduled announcement of 10:00 am, keeping the stop/loss 10 pips below the pre-release price. I am hoping to get a 30 pips move on this one on the GBP/USD pair, and perhaps even higher, if the consumer confidence gives a big surprise.Â
Â
That’s all for tomorrow
Â
To Our Success!
-Felix Homogratus
1617 Broadway St., Suite 1001
New York, NY 10002
USA