Hi there
What a day today… Let’s review what happenedÂ
We were watching and possibly trading 5 different reports. First, we had the UK CPI come out, which hit my trigger and gave a long signal on GBP/USD. The pair only moved by about 28 pips, and then reversed and plumetted down the opposite direction. All the ducks were lined up on that CPI figure, there were no conflicts, I guess the pound was just overbought, and a lot of taking profit took place at the 1.9700 level. This trade, you could’ve made a small profit, could’ve broke even, or could’ve had a small loss. Whatever your result was, I expected a much cleaner and bigger move.
Then we had German ZEW come out, which didn’t hit my trigger. Then we had Empire Manufacturing Index come out, which hit the trigger that I sent you out yesterday, but I made my trigger more conservative before the trade, just to be on a safe side, so I stayed out. However, if you acted based on my triggers, you should’ve made close to 20 pips. As we expected that move took its time to manifest, and the GBP/USD hit the 20 pips target like 7 minutes after the release. But it was a nice, small steady climb up on the pound.
Then we had Canadian interest rate statement come out. The rate was unchanged, we saw Canadian dollar strengthen a bit for a brief moment, based on the comments that Canada was happy with their interest rate, which matched their current inflation situation. Canadian dollar strengthened a bit on such statement, because it put further doubts in people’s minds whether Canada will do another rate hike later this year.
Then we had the New Zealand CPI coming out. I have refocused myself on the quarterly number, rather than annual number, because I had a fear that annual number will be released slower, which did happen by the way. My trigger did hit the annual number that I sent you yesterday, but it didn’t hit my quarterly trigger that I used today before the trade, so I stayed out of it….what a shame that was. NZD/USD moved down by over 60 pips, and AUD/NZD moved up by over 100 pips. It was a nice steady move that took 20 seconds to manifest. What a bummer to miss such beauty. If you traded based on my annual trigger, you may have gotten in and made a few pips, but probably considerably less than the move, since the annual number did come out few seconds too late. If you want to learn a lot and watch some of these trade live, please go to this link:
http://forexdiamonds.com/performance.htm
Rob Grespi from kingforexsignals.com had a below average day today. He took quite a few trades, some wins, some losses, which ended the day only +36 pips in profit, which brought his performance up to +617 pips in January so far. Whoever uses ECN broker with Rob probably barely covered commissions due to the large number of trades. But good thing is that Rob has extremely minimal drawdowns, so if one follows most trades, some days will be close to break even, others will be barely profitable or small losses, but a day or two per week he’ll have a blockbuster day, that’ll make all the other close to break even trading worth it. You can watch Rob’s live trading videos by going to this link: http://www.kingforexsignals.com/robtrades0107.htm
Okay, let’s talk about what’s going on tomorrow. We have a small trading marathon coming up during the U.S. session.
1. Wednesday, January 17th, 2007 (8:30 am New York Time) USA
We have PPI numbers coming out of the U.S. We have four number, two monthly number, and two yearly numbers, two core, and two headlines. My focus will be month over month core PPI, which is also known as less food and energy. The expected number is to come out somewhere between 0 to 0.2%. If the monthly core PPI comes out at 0.6% or higher, it would be good for the dollar, so I may possibly go short on GBP/USD. If the number comes out at -0.4% or more negative, it would be bad for the dollar, so I may possibly go long on GBP/USD. If my trigger is hit, the move will depend on the market sentiment and important price levels before the news, but if everything is in-line, I am expecting a move anywhere from 30 to 60 pips. That’s of course assuming that annual numbers and headline numbers don’t conflict. If they do, I’d be looking to exit rather earlier than later.
2. Wednesday, January 17th, 2007 (9:00 am New York Time) USA
Then we have TIC report coming out. This is a federal report that measures number of ticks (or small nasty animals) that the government employees have. A reading above zero means that the number of government employees with ticks exceeds the number of government employees without ticks. The higher the number, the better it is for the U.S. economy, because the more ticks the government employees have, the more irritated they get, and start wars, which is usually positive for domestic manufacturing of weapons and other durable goods, therefore is positive for the U.S. dollar. The expected number is at 75 Billion. If the number reads at 115 Billion or higher, it would set new record high in the last few years, so it should be positive for the dollar short term, so I may possibly go short on GBP/USD. If the number comes out at 25 billion or lower, it would set new record low in the last few years, and I may possibly go long on GBP/USD. We’ll be very lucky to get a 30 pips move out of this one. Be careful, don’t hope for much more than just a quick spike.
3. Wednesday, January 17th, 2007 (9:15 am New York Time) USA
Then we have Industrial Production coming out of the U.S. The expectation for this report to come out somewhere at around 0.1%. If it comes out at 0.4% or higher, it would match the highest reading since June of 2006, and I may possibly go short on GBP/USD. If it comes out at -0.2% or more negative, it would be the second lowest reading since end of 2005, and bad for the dollar, so I may possibly go long on GBP/USD. I am expecting a move of at least 30 pips on this one, assuming that there are no strong price levels or some extreme market sentiment to prohibit such move.
4. Wednesday, January 17th, 2007 (6:50 pm New York Time or in a few hours after) JAPAN
Then we have Interest Rate statement coming out of Japan. About 60% of the people are expecting a rate hike to 0.50%, and another 40% of the people are expecting the rate to stay unchanged at 0.25%. Problem is Japan doesn’t have a set time for the interest rate release. They usually get into a room around 7 pm NY Time, and they all chit chat, and then sporatically announce the rate. Hopefully it will come somewhere between 7 pm and 8 pm NY time, but it may also come later than that. However this might be trade of the week. If they keep the rate unchanged at 0.25%, I may possibly go long on USD/JPY, and expect a move between 75 and 120 pips. If they hike the rate to 0.50%, I may possibly go short on USD/JPY, and expect a move also between 75 to 120 pips down. I am very excited about this reportÂ
Remember, tomorrow is Wednesday, so at 11:00 pm New York Time, I will be taking few lucky people at a special scholarship price for Rob Grespi kingforexsignals.com signals. If you want to have a chance at that, make sure you are on the waiting list, and keep refreshing your email box at 11:00 pm New York Time. Here is the link to get on the waiting list:
http://www.kingforexsignals.com/signup.htm
That’s all for tomorrowÂ
To Our Success!
-Felix Homogratus
1617 Broadway St., Suite 1001
New York, NY 10002
USA