Forex alert for 12/14/2006
Hi there? 
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I hope you are having a wonderful day :)? Yesterday, I went out for a short drive to return some rented movies to a local blockbuster, and was stopped by a cop for illegal u-turn.? It was a very interesting experience to say the least.? After talking to me for a few minutes, then pointing his flashlight into my eyes, then checking my pulse, he was convinced that I was using crystal methane or some other drug.? He told me that I wasn’t responding to his questions in the normal manner, he said that my eyes didn’t respond to his light like they should, and that my pulse wasn’t acting normal.? I tried to explain to him that I am a forex trader, and I was very tired, and because I trade at nights, my eyes don’t quite know the difference between night and day, and we, forex traders, are a little bit different breed of people, so our heart beats differently, but it didn’t help.? He put my hands behind my back, searched me, searched my car, and he seemed very surprised not to find any drugs.? After seeing my “U.S. parachute association” sticker, for some reason he thought that I was a paratrooper, so I guess he decided to give me a break and not make me take any drug tests, and just let me go with a ticket.? I still don’t know what caused this cop’s suspicion.? Did my body biology indeed change after trading forex for such a long time?? Or perhaps he thought that the word forex was a name for some newly invented drug?? I don’t know…but the lesson of the story is I got nailed for DUFI, which stands for Driving Under Forex Influence.? Please be responsible, don’t trade and drive.? True story by the way…
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Okay, so earlier today, we had two reports coming out.? We had the Retail Sales coming out of the U.S., and we had the Retail Sales coming out of New Zealand.? We got a short signal on Retail Sales, and GBP/USD went down by over 100 pips.? I was very surprised by that move, it was definitely very much unexpected.? Ended up taking my profits early.? You can watch the trading video by going to this link:
http://forexdiamonds.com/video.php?video=121306_USRetailSalesXAutos
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Rob Grespi had another phenomenal day today, having 5 out of 6 winning trades, totaling +103 pips for the day.? That brought his performance up to +740 pips for the month so far.? His performance has been absolutely unbelievable.? There was a reason I hired someone to record the videos of all Rob’s trades, otherwise, people would have hard believing such performance.? But now I have proof :)? Click here to see his trade videos: http://www.kingforexsignals.com/robtrades1206.htm
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Okay, let’s talk about what’s happening tomorrow on the fundamental side.
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1.? Thursday, December 14th, 2006 (4:30 am New York Time) UK
We have Retail Sales coming out of the UK for November.? After a yearly high huge gain in October of 0.9%, most economists think that the retail sales will come out flat for November, simply catching up to the relatively large gain which was made in October.? If the Retail Sales come out at -0.4% or more negative, I may possibly go short on GBP/USD, since it would be only 3rd time retail sales drop this year.? If the Retail Sales come out at 0.4% or higher, I may possibly go long on GBP/USD, since another substantial gain after a gain of 0.9% would really be a pleasant surprise for the UK.?
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2.? Thursday, December 14th, 2006 (8:30 am New York Time) USA & CANADA
Then we have Import Price Index coming out of the U.S., and Manufacturing shipments coming out of Canada at the same time.? I really don’t like this Import Price Index indicator, because I was never able to gauge its impact on the market, because I’ve never seen it come out isolated.? It normally comes out together with other extremely powerful indicators, like Retail Sales, Trade Balance, or Housing numbers.? Theoretically speaking, this indicator shouldn’t really affect the currency market much, because it really has no direct reflection of the U.S. economy.? It simply gauges the prices that the U.S. businesses pay for imported goods.? It doesn’t exclude any volatile items, and it has some effect on inflation, but it’s extremely marginal.? Canadian manufacturing shipments on the other hand is an excellent indicator.? If it deviates sufficiently, it can easily move USD/CAD by 30 to 50 pips and even more.? Canadian manufacturing shipments are expected at -0.5%.? If it comes out at 1% or higher, I may possibly go short on USD/CAD.? If it comes out at -2% or lower, I may possibly go long on USD/CAD.? Just watch out for that import price index.? If it comes out at 1% or higher, or -1% or more negative, and it conflicts with the Canadian number, I suggest staying out and simply seeing what happens.
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3.? Thursday, December 14th, 2006 (6:50 pm New York Time) JAPAN
We have Tankan survey coming out of Japan.? We have 4 major reports for this.? We have the Manufacturers index, manufacturers outlook, then we have non-manufacturers index, and non-manufacturers outlook.? The most important number is the manufacturers index, which is expected at 25.? If it comes out at 27 or higher, it would be the highest number in many years, so I may possibly go short on USD/JPY, given that the conflicts on the other numbers are not that big.? If it comes out at 23 or lower, I may possibly go long on USD/JPY, because at 23 would be a drop from previous quarter’s 24, and therefore would be the 1st drop on this survey in 2 years.?
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That’s all for tomorrow
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To Our Success!
-Felix Homogratus
1617 Broadway St., Suite 1001
New York, NY 10002
USA
(source: www.forexbastards.com)