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Archive for December, 2006

Forex alert for 12/14/2006

Thursday, December 14th, 2006

Hi there? :)
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I hope you are having a wonderful day :) ? Yesterday, I went out for a short drive to return some rented movies to a local blockbuster, and was stopped by a cop for illegal u-turn.? It was a very interesting experience to say the least.? After talking to me for a few minutes, then pointing his flashlight into my eyes, then checking my pulse, he was convinced that I was using crystal methane or some other drug.? He told me that I wasn’t responding to his questions in the normal manner, he said that my eyes didn’t respond to his light like they should, and that my pulse wasn’t acting normal.? I tried to explain to him that I am a forex trader, and I was very tired, and because I trade at nights, my eyes don’t quite know the difference between night and day, and we, forex traders, are a little bit different breed of people, so our heart beats differently, but it didn’t help.? He put my hands behind my back, searched me, searched my car, and he seemed very surprised not to find any drugs.? After seeing my “U.S. parachute association” sticker, for some reason he thought that I was a paratrooper, so I guess he decided to give me a break and not make me take any drug tests, and just let me go with a ticket.? I still don’t know what caused this cop’s suspicion.? Did my body biology indeed change after trading forex for such a long time?? Or perhaps he thought that the word forex was a name for some newly invented drug?? I don’t know…but the lesson of the story is I got nailed for DUFI, which stands for Driving Under Forex Influence.? Please be responsible, don’t trade and drive.? True story by the way…
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Okay, so earlier today, we had two reports coming out.? We had the Retail Sales coming out of the U.S., and we had the Retail Sales coming out of New Zealand.? We got a short signal on Retail Sales, and GBP/USD went down by over 100 pips.? I was very surprised by that move, it was definitely very much unexpected.? Ended up taking my profits early.? You can watch the trading video by going to this link:
http://forexdiamonds.com/video.php?video=121306_USRetailSalesXAutos
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Rob Grespi had another phenomenal day today, having 5 out of 6 winning trades, totaling +103 pips for the day.? That brought his performance up to +740 pips for the month so far.? His performance has been absolutely unbelievable.? There was a reason I hired someone to record the videos of all Rob’s trades, otherwise, people would have hard believing such performance.? But now I have proof :) ? Click here to see his trade videos: http://www.kingforexsignals.com/robtrades1206.htm
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Okay, let’s talk about what’s happening tomorrow on the fundamental side.
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1.? Thursday, December 14th, 2006 (4:30 am New York Time) UK
We have Retail Sales coming out of the UK for November.? After a yearly high huge gain in October of 0.9%, most economists think that the retail sales will come out flat for November, simply catching up to the relatively large gain which was made in October.? If the Retail Sales come out at -0.4% or more negative, I may possibly go short on GBP/USD, since it would be only 3rd time retail sales drop this year.? If the Retail Sales come out at 0.4% or higher, I may possibly go long on GBP/USD, since another substantial gain after a gain of 0.9% would really be a pleasant surprise for the UK.?
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2.? Thursday, December 14th, 2006 (8:30 am New York Time) USA & CANADA
Then we have Import Price Index coming out of the U.S., and Manufacturing shipments coming out of Canada at the same time.? I really don’t like this Import Price Index indicator, because I was never able to gauge its impact on the market, because I’ve never seen it come out isolated.? It normally comes out together with other extremely powerful indicators, like Retail Sales, Trade Balance, or Housing numbers.? Theoretically speaking, this indicator shouldn’t really affect the currency market much, because it really has no direct reflection of the U.S. economy.? It simply gauges the prices that the U.S. businesses pay for imported goods.? It doesn’t exclude any volatile items, and it has some effect on inflation, but it’s extremely marginal.? Canadian manufacturing shipments on the other hand is an excellent indicator.? If it deviates sufficiently, it can easily move USD/CAD by 30 to 50 pips and even more.? Canadian manufacturing shipments are expected at -0.5%.? If it comes out at 1% or higher, I may possibly go short on USD/CAD.? If it comes out at -2% or lower, I may possibly go long on USD/CAD.? Just watch out for that import price index.? If it comes out at 1% or higher, or -1% or more negative, and it conflicts with the Canadian number, I suggest staying out and simply seeing what happens.
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3.? Thursday, December 14th, 2006 (6:50 pm New York Time) JAPAN
We have Tankan survey coming out of Japan.? We have 4 major reports for this.? We have the Manufacturers index, manufacturers outlook, then we have non-manufacturers index, and non-manufacturers outlook.? The most important number is the manufacturers index, which is expected at 25.? If it comes out at 27 or higher, it would be the highest number in many years, so I may possibly go short on USD/JPY, given that the conflicts on the other numbers are not that big.? If it comes out at 23 or lower, I may possibly go long on USD/JPY, because at 23 would be a drop from previous quarter’s 24, and therefore would be the 1st drop on this survey in 2 years.?
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That’s all for tomorrow :)
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To Our Success!
-Felix Homogratus

1617 Broadway St., Suite 1001
New York, NY 10002
USA
(source: www.forexbastards.com)

Forex alert for 12/13/2006

Wednesday, December 13th, 2006

Hi there Mauro :)
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I hope you had a wonderful day today, I sure did :) ? Had two nice news trades with the UK CPI and the U.S. trade balance.? The moves weren’t as big as I expected them to be, but still managed to squeeze out a good number of pips.? I suggest you watch the videos about the UK CPI and the U.S. trade balance.? I believe you will learn a lot about the fundamentals behind those two and what they mean for currencies.? Go to this link to see the videos:
http://forexdiamonds.com/performance.htm
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Rob Grespi from kingforexsignals.com keeps amazing me more and more every day.? With his “connections” and his ability to see bids and offers in the market, he keeps giving these amazing trades not only outside of news, but also several minutes before the actual news announcements.? Yesterday he again made +87 pips, which brought his performance for December to +637 pips so far.? +637 pips in only 8 trading days so far this month is pretty phenomenal.? If someone told me about such performance, I would probably have hard time believing it.? But…we have a video of almost every trade to prove it :) ? You can go here to watch the videos:
http://www.kingforexsignals.com/robtrades1206.htm
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I especially recommend you watch the trade he gave before 8 minutes before UK CPI.? You can watch it here: http://www.kingforexsignals.com/Robvideos/121206_7_Rob/121206_7_Rob.html

Okay, so let’s talk now about what’s going on tomorrow.
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1.? Wednesday, December 13th, 2006 (8:30 am New York Time) USA
We have US retail sales coming out.? We have the headline number and the number X autos.? Autos is a very expensive and volatile item, which can greatly throw off retail sales either direction, therefore most economists focus on the X autos number.? X autos is expected to gain 0.3% in the month of November, versus a loss of -0.4% back in October.? If the Retail Sales X autos come out at 0.5% or higher, it would signify that the month of November not only recovered the losses in retail sales throughout October, but even came ahead.? So if the number comes out at 0.5% or higher, I may possibly go short on GBP/USD, since it would be positive for the U.S. dollar.? On the other hand, if the number comes out at 0% or negative, I may possibly go long on GBP/USD.? No gains in retail sales in a holiday month of November, after a huge drop of -0.4% in October would be looked at as very negative for the dollar.? So if the number comes out at 0% or negative, I may possibly go long on GBP/USD.? If the headline number conflicts with the x autos number by at least 0.2% or more, I will be looking to exit right away.? If my triggers are hit, I expect this report to give us at least 30 to 50 pips, depending on the deviations.
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2.? Wednesday, December 13th, 2006 (4:45 pm New York Time) NEW ZEALAND
We have New Zealand retail sales coming out for the month of October.? It’s expected to come out at around 0.1%, which is a relatively small gain, due to a huge gain of 1.2% back in September.? If the number comes out at 1.0% or higher, it would be a very pleasant surprise for NZD, so I may possibly go either long on NZD/USD or short on AUD/NZD.? If the number comes out at -0.9% or lower, it would be the biggest drop since February of 2004, and would be shockingly bad in the short term for New Zealand dollar.? So if the number comes out at -0.9% or lower, I may possibly go short on NZD/USD or go long on AUD/NZD.
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That’s all for tomorrow :)
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(source: www.forexbastards.com)

Forex alert for 12/12/2006

Tuesday, December 12th, 2006

Hi there? :)
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I hope you are having a wonderful day :) ? I am very excited ahead of tomorrow.? We have A LOT of things happening :)
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Before we continue, let’s review what happened earlier today.? As you may already know, the UK trade balance and PPI numbers came out very close to expectation, so we didn’t get any trades on that one.? However, I think you should watch my video live, so you could learn a lot of things about what PPI and trade balance really mean.? Click on this link to watch the video:
http://forexdiamonds.com/video.php?video=121106_UKVisibleTradeBalance
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Rob Grespi from kingforexsignals.com is completely shocking me with his performance.? Today, he again had a super positive day, making +122 pips, which brings the month of December up to +550 pips so far.? Remember, Rob can see bids and offers in the market, so he trades based on supply and demand flows, that beats even the fundamentals :) ? Click here to see videos of his today’s trades :) ? I think you will greatly enjoy them.
http://www.kingforexsignals.com/robtrades1206.htm
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Okay, here is what’s going on tomorrow.
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1.? Tuesday, December 12th, 2006 (4:30 am New York Time) UK
We have CPI coming out of UK.? It’s a biggie, because it’s an inflation measure, and this reading may help the UK government decide whether to do another rate hike or not.? My focus will be the monthly headline number, which is expected at around 0.2%.? If it comes out at 0.3% or higher, I may possibly go long on GBP/USD.? If it comes out at 0.0% or lower, I may possibly go short on GBP/USD.? Just watch out for the core yearly number, which is expected at around 1.5%.? If the yearly core conflicts by even 0.1%, I would exit my position immediately, and stay out.? Reason my short trigger is higher, is because the consensus at 0.1% or 0.2% is very split, however almost nobody is expecting 0%, and nobody is expecting 0.3%.? If my triggers are hit without conflicts, we should probably see the pound move by 50 to 120 pips in the first hour of this report.
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2.? Tuesday, December 12th, 2006 (5:00 am New York Time) GERMANY
We have Zew Economic Sentiment coming out of Germany.? This is one of the rare reports out of a E-12 country that actually matters and moves the market consistently.? It’s expected to come out at -25.? If it comes out at -30 or more negative, that would be the lowest reading in many years, if not ever, plus it would be a psychologically bad number being over -30, almost nobody is expecting that, so if it happens, I may possibly go short on EUR/USD.? If it comes out at -19 or less negative, I may possibly go long on EUR/USD, because -19 or or less negative would be the highest reading since August, it would be below the psychological -20 level, and would signify a drop of almost 10 points from previous number at -28.5.? If my triggers are hit, I expect at least 20 pips move on this one.
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3.? Wednesday, December 12th, 2006 (8:30 am New York Time) USA
We have U.S. trade balance coming out.? It’s another biggie.? Remember, the more negative the trade balance, the more money flows out of the United States, because it imports more than exports, and that devaluates the dollar by a simple principal of supply and demand.? I’d probably want to see a deviation of at least 2 billion to be safe on this one.? The expectation is -63 billion, so if it comes out at -65 billion or more negative, it would be bad for the dollar, so I may possibly go long on GBP/USD.? If it comes out at -61 billion or or less negative, it would be good for the dollar, so I may possibly go short on GBP/USD.?
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4.? Wednesday, December 12th, 2006 (2:15 pm New York Time) USA
We have FOMC interest rate statement coming out of the U.S.? It’s widely & unanimously expected that the U.S. will keep the rates unchanged at 5.25%.? I mean, this is like 99.99% sure.? If for some reason they hike the rate to 5.50%, I may possibly go short on GBP/USD, since it would be good for the dollar, or if they cut the rate to 5.00%, I may possibly go long on GBP/USD, since it would be bad for the dollar.? But you probably have a bigger chance of seeing a flying pig tomorrow, than U.S. doing anything with the rates :) ? It’s highly unlikely.? What I will be focusing on is the comments after the rate hike.? Most likely the comments will be hawkish, stressing the inflation threats.? If the Fed says anything directly about another rate hike, I may possibly go short on GBP/USD.? If they make a direct comment about cutting rates next year, I may possibly go long on GBP/USD.? Unless they make a directly related interest rate comment, I won’t be trading this.
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That’s all for tomorrow :) ? I hope that’s enough fundamental trading for you :) ? It sure is for me, I just hope that we get a trade from at least one of these reports.
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To Our Success!
-Felix Homogratus

1617 Broadway St., Suite 1001
New York, NY 10002
USA
source: www.forexbastards.com

Forex alert for 12/11/2006

Monday, December 11th, 2006

Hi Mauro :)
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I hope you had a wonderful weekend.? And I hope you are ready for the big week ahead with CPI numbers coming out of UK and U.S., and a few other very nice reports.
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So let’s review what happened on Friday.? The Non-Farm payroll :) ? As you know, it didn’t hit my triggers, so I had no trade, but Rob Grespi from kingforexsignals.com, having some “connections”, hearing some “rumors”, and being able to see bids and offers in the market, gave a short signal on GBP/USD 4 minutes before the actual report, and ended up making 60 pips between the two lots, which brought his performance for December so far to +428 pips.? You can watch the non-farm video here:
http://www.kingforexsignals.com/Robvideos/120806_5_Rob/120806_5_Rob.html
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Okay, here is what’s going on tomorrow.? Only one report, and it might be a tough one to trade, because of two conflicting figures, but I think we could squeeze something out of it.
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1.? Monday, December 11th, 2006 (4:30 am New York Time) UK
We have UK Trade Balance coming out of UK.? We will actually have three figures on the trade balance, and we will also have PPI numbers coming out.? PPI output is more important than PPI input.? PPI stands for Producer Price Index, and it’s an inflation measure, not a very reliable one, because it only covers producer prices, but it can shock the market if it deviates significantly.? The trade balance here is the most important figure in my opinion, assuming that PPI doesn’t do anything crazy.? The biggest focus will probably be the visible trade balance, which is expected at -6,600 million, or -6.6 billion.? A number of -7,000 million or more negative would be unexpected, so if it happens, I may possibly go short on GBP/USD.? A number of -5,998 million or less negative would be this year’s high, by beating April’s number by only 1 thousand, April’s number was -5,999 million.? So such number would be positive for the pound, so I may possibly go long on GBP/USD.? Watch out for conflicts on the monthly PPI numbers.? PPI input is expected at -0.1%, output is expected at 0%, and output core is expected at 0.1%.? If any of them come out deviating by at least 0.2%, as a conflict to the trade balance, I suggest staying out.
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That’s all for tomorrow :)
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To Our Success!
-Felix Homogratus

(source: www.forexbastards.com)

Forex alert for 12/08/2006

Friday, December 8th, 2006

Hi there? folks :)
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I hope you are having a great day and I hope you are excited before the huge non-farm payroll report tomorrow :)
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We were watching quite a few things earlier today.? All interest rate statements came out exactly as expected.? Trichet was hawkish, and it moved EUR/USD about 40 pips.? I personally wasn’t able to take a profit on that, I made three trades on that report, one was a loser, one was a winner, and the last one was pretty much break even.? I think I lost a total of about 16 pips on half a lot on this report, which makes it about 8 pips on 1 lot.? Then I also traded Japanese GDP report, which I didn’t tell you about yesterday, and the Japanese GDP reading was horrible, but the yen only weakened about 12 pips.? I took a loss of 9 pips on that trade on 2 lots, because I was hoping for a much bigger move.? Oh well…it happens sometimes.? The market can be dumb on some economic reports, but it’s always important to remember that no matter how dumb the market is, it’s always right.
You can watch the videos of the Trichet speech and the Japanese report by going to this link:
http://forexdiamonds.com/performance.htm
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Rob Grespi on the other hand had another profitable day today, making +39 pips, which puts his performance to +374 pips so far for the month.? To watch his trading videos, please click here:
http://www.kingforexsignals.com/performance.htm
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Okay that’s all for review, let’s focus on what’s going on tomorrow.
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We have a few reports coming out tonight.? We have the German trade balance, Canadian housing starts, U.S. non-farm payroll, and U.S. consumer sentiment.? I am not going to be watching any of these things, except non-farm payroll.
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1.? Friday, December 7th, 2006 (8:30 am New York Time) USA
We have non-farm payroll coming out.? Expectations are at 100K.? After the ADP Employment that came out at 158K, it seems like most people will be expecting a surprise on the upside rather than downside.? If the NonFarm number comes out at 150K or higher, I may possibly go short on GBP/USD.? If the number comes out at 69K or lower, I may possibly go long on GBP/USD.? WATCH OUT FOR REVISIONS of previous number at 92K.? If the previous revision comes out at 20K difference up or down and it’s conflicting, exit immediately.? Also, keep in mind the unemployment rate, which last month was at 4.4%, and now is expected at 4.5%.? If the unemployment rate conflicts by at least 0.2% against the non-farm payroll, I will take my profits or losses, and exit the position.
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That’s all for tomorrow :) ? Let’s hope we can complete this week with humangous profits from this non-farm payroll report.

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(source: www.forexbastards.com)
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Forex alert for 12/07/2006

Thursday, December 7th, 2006

Hi there folks :)

Okay, so let’s review what happened earlier today.

REVIEW OF 12/06/06

UK Industrial Production
Industrial Production came out was worse than expected it was a beautiful trade.? We caught the initial spike with 2 units, then caught the second wave, and then made a couple of pips on the retracement.? To watch the video of this trade, please go to the link below:
http://forexdiamonds.com/video.php?video=120606_UKIndustrialProduction

US ADP Employment
ADP Employment came out slightly better than expected, didn’t hit my conservative trigger, but to my surprise GBP/USD moved down 40 pips on this report.? First time I see such big move on such small deviation on this ADP report.? I’ll take this into consideration next month on this trade.? ADP Employment report first came out in May of this year, and it seems to get more and more respect every month.

NEW ZEALAND Interest Rate Statement
New Zealand left the rates unchanged.? Bollard was extremely hawkish on his speech.? In the beginning of the speech, there were some conflicts, he first said that they are lowering their expectations on inflation, but they will raise the rate if needed.? That were conflicting comments so we saw AUD/NZD go down 30 pips, and then go right back up 30 pips, nasty whipsaw action.? Then as speech unfolded, Bollard gave further hints regarding the interest rate hike next year.? Overall, AUD/NZD dropped on this speech 100 pips in the first hour.? I stayed out of this trade.? Too many conflicts at the beginning of the speech, and as the speech was being unfolded, I didn’t want to chase the price, because I didn’t know how much more fuel it had.? In addition to that, I had the time for this report mixed up, so came in to my trading station few seconds before the rate release and speech.

AUSTRALIA Employment Figures
Australian employment came out way better than expected.? Made decent money on the initial spike, then made a couple of pips on the retracement down, totaling 21 pips total.? Unfortunately the video of this report is unavailable due to a technical difficulty that the person that records my videos had.? Instead of AUD/USD pair, he recorded everything on AUD/NZD pair, which had completely different price action.

ROB GRESPI from www.kingforexsignals.com
Rob Grespi had another beautiful day today, making 99 pips total.? He took 7 trades.? His total so far for December is +332 pips.? Not bad, considering that we only had 4 trading days in December so far.
To watch videos of his yesterday’s trades, please go to this link:
http://www.kingforexsignals.com/robtrades1206.htm

Here is what’s going on tomorrow.

1.? Thursday, December 7th, 2006 (7:00 am New York Time) UK
We have interest rate statement coming out of UK.? It’s expected to stay unchanged at 5%.? If for some reason UK hikes the rate to 5.25%, I may possibly go long on GBP/USD.? If they bring the rate down to 4.75%, I may possibly go short on GBP/USD.? These scenarios are pretty much impossible though…most likely UK will leave the rates unchanged.? What will be important are comments after the rate announcement.? If comments are hinting towards another rate hike next year, I may possibly go long on GBP/USD.? If comments are suggesting that there will probably be no more rate hikes again, then I may possibly go short on GBP/USD.

2.? Thursday, December 7th, 2006 (7:45 am New York Time) E-12
We have interest rate statement coming out of E-12.? It’s expected to be raised from 3.25% to 3.50%.? If the raise happens, it’s already priced in, so I won’t be trading it.? However, if Euro zone changes the rate unchanged at 3.25%, I may possibly go short on EUR/USD.? Or if the rate is raised to 3.75%, I may possibly go long on EUR/USD.? Such scenarios are also extremely unlikely.

3.? Thursday, December 7th, 2006 (8:30 am New York Time) E-12
Then we have Trichet speech, commenting on the interest rate statement.? If Trichet hints towards more rate hikes in the future, I may possibly go long on EUR/USD.? If Trichet hints that the current rate is comfortable and they most likely won’t need to do another rate hike any time soon, then I may possibly go short on EUR/USD.

That’s all for tomorrow :)

Cheers

(source: www.forexbastards.com)

Welcome in our blog section!

Thursday, December 7th, 2006

Hi everyone,

? It is a pleasure for us to extend the invitation to this new BLOG at www.BuyForexSignals.com. Please come and visit each day we will post forex alerts and signals and news about this very interesting field. Stay tuned!

? Cheers,