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Hello folks,

If you wish to watch the video, just click on it, and then click on “play” icon.

YouTube - Forex News Day Trading Signal - 10/17/07 Close
2You need to upgrade your Flash Player2
Let’s first review what happened on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.

On Sunday we had the New Zealand CPI. The expectation was 0.8%, and if you watch the video, I said if the expectation was 0.6% or below, NZD/USD may possibly go down by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. As you could see, the CPI came out at 0.5% which hit my sell trigger. NZD/USD opened at around 7787, and then it went down within the first hour to 7726 so it was about 61 pips move. That was a pretty smooth move, and there was a quite few after spike opportunities. I know some brokers such as MBTrading were closed at the time of news release so this could prohibit some people from trading this report. I am pretty sure that whoever was able to get in, did made money on this report. Unfortunately, although the video with my signal was recorded before the news, the actual link has been sent after the news release, and I apologize for it.

Then today we had UK CPI y/y. I told you if it comes out at 1.8%, we may see GBP/USD going down by 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. It came out at 1.8% so it hit my trigger; however, the core CPI came out way lower so obviously the move was much bigger. You have to look at these things if you trade news as I cannot predict everything. We saw GBP/USD opening at 2.0387, and within the first 20 minutes it hit 2.0320 so it was about 67 pips move. There was a nice retracement that gave a good opportunity to enter after the spike. I hope you made a good money on this.

Then we had Manufacturing shipments at 8:30 a.m. New York time. It did not hit my trigger as it came out -1.7% so that was a no trade.

Let’s now talk about what is going on tomorrow.

1. Wednesday, October 17th, 2007 (4:30 a.m. New York Time) UK
On Wednesday at 4:30 a.m. New York time we will have BOE minutes coming out. I think nothing will happen during this minutes. This time the vote is totally not important. If the vote was 9:0, 8:1 or 7:2 when they did not raise the rate last time, it does not make any difference now. What we want to look at is for any comments or any discussions of a possible cut. I don’t think last meeting was early enough for that but if in the last meeting there was at least one member who voted for a rate cut, or anything mentioning about the rate cut, then GBP/USD may possibly go down by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If nobody mentioned anything about cuts, I would skip this indicator. This month (today) the inflation did read very low so most likely there is going to be a talk about rate cuts during next meeting. Two weeks ago probably there was not enough data that would warrant such discussion (a possible rate cut) but if someone voted for a rate cut, then it would be a sell on GBP/USD.

2. Wednesday, October 17th, 2007 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA
Then at 8:30 a.m. New York time we will have U.S. CPI and Housing Starts. Most economists expect that CORE CPI will read either 0.2% or 0.1%. The Core CPI is the most important indicator here; however, housing starts can be even more important if the deviation is big but usually it does not deviate that much. If the Core CPI reads 0.3% and there is no big conflict with housing starts, GBP/USD may go down by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if core CPI reads flat, 0% or negative and there is no big conflict with housing starts, we may possibly see GBP/USD gaining 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. Also, if the CPI is steady and the housing starts will come out at 1 M or below, GBP/USD may possibly go up by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if the housing starts comes out at 1.5 M or above, GBP/USD may possibly go down by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report - because that would signify some recovery on the housing market. I would not trade the spike on this one; instead, I would wait and see the numbers, and then make a trading decision once all the numbers are released. You can use ForexBastards calendar to get the numbers; they will be 10 to 15 seconds delayed but you do not need them the same second unless you want to trade the spike. Wait for the retracement, and then try to enter within about 15 to 20 pips of the prerelease price.

It seems that’s all for Wednesday.

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Hi there

If you prefer to listen to this email in an audible format, here is the youtube link for it:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GGVn-H576eI

If you do decide to listen to this signal on youtube, I would appreciate if you could at least submit a rating of it there, and perhaps even leave a comment if you have time.

Let’s first review what happened earlier today.

There was only one report we were watching and possibly trading: Australian unemployment. It was expected to come out 15,000. I told you if it comes out at zero or negative, it would be a possible sell on AUD/USD, good for 35 pips or more. Well, the employment came out around 3,000, I believe, it was a little bit shy of hitting my trigger but still it was worse than it was expected. We saw a drop on AUD/USD by almost 40 pips immediately. This whole spike happened within the first five seconds. I was waiting for the retracement in order to be able to get in around 8620 short, and as you could see, the price went to about 8619 so I was shy by about 1 pip of being executed here. That’s not a big deal because the move did not continue much. As I said yesterday, this particular report if it makes a spike and you could not get in with a decent price on the retracement, it is not worth the risk since it may not continue that much. This is exactly what happened here, and, of course, it did not hit my trigger.

Let’s now talk about what is going on tomorrow, Thursday.

1. Thursday, July 12th, 2007 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
At 8:30 a.m. NY time we will have a trade balance coming out of the United States, and we will have a trade balance coming out of Canada as well. I personally will be focusing on the Canadian trade balance since Canada is a huge exporter, and therefore Canadian trade balance is a lot more important. Because of recent things happening with the Canadian dollar and their interest rates, I think Canadian trade balance tomorrow is going to be one of the most crucial trade balance reading this year so I think we can see a very nice volatility. Basically, the trade balance is expected to slow from previous reading of 5.8 billion to about 5.5 billion. They are expecting it to slow because higher Canadian dollar is expected to mute the manufacturing activity a little bit. If for some reason the trade balance comes out at 5.9 billion or higher, it would actually signify that it increased versus previous month, and I think even on such small deviation we may see EUR/CAD going down by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if the trade balance comes out below 5 billion, it would be bad for the Canadian dollar, and we may see EUR/CAD going up by 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report. Of course, the bigger the deviation the bigger the move probably we will see. Be careful with USD/CAD as we will have the U.S. Trade Balance at the same time in the USA.

SUMMARY:
* Report: Canadian Trade Balance
* SELL on EUR/CAD if the number will be 5.9 B or higher
* BUY on EUR/CAD if the number will be below 5 B
* If the trigger is hit, expect 50 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

2. Thursday, July 12th, 2007 (10:30 a.m. New York Time) CANADA
Then, at 10:30 a.m. New York time we will have bank of Canada monetary policy report. I personally will not be trading that report simply because we just got Bank of Canada report on the last interest rate statement, just a couple of days ago. I highly doubt there will be anything new on this monetary policy report, and I think watching it would be just a waste of time. Be aware of possible volatility during that time.

3. Thursday, July 12th, 2007 (6:45 p.m. New York Time) NEW ZEALAND
Then, at 6:45 p.m. New York time, will have a retail sales coming out of New Zealand. It is expected that New Zealand retail sales will come out 0.5% after a huge drop last month to -1.2%. That report has a little bit of important timing because in about a week, I believe on July 21st, around that time, Bank of New Zealand will be releasing their interest rates statement. There is about 20% chance that the New Zealand may hike the rate. So this retail sales would be highly scrutinized, and it may even give a reason to hike interest rates. Basically, if they come out at 0.3% or lower, it would be a low reading after last month low reading, and we may possibly see NZD/USD going down by 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. On the other hand, if the retail sales come out at 0.8% or higher, we may see NZD/USD going up but 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report. How sustained the move will be will highly depend on the deviation, and the price levels right before the report will be crucial as well.

SUMMARY:
* Report: New Zealand Retail Sales
* SELL on NZD/USD if the number will be 0.3% or lower
* BUY on NZD/USD if the number will be 0.8% or higher
* If the trigger is hit, expect 30 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

I suggest that you will go to http://www.forexdiamonds.com as I just updated that website. This is my live trading service, and I suggest you to read everything on that page. I wrote a lot about my philosophy of trading the news, and I think you would learn a lot from there.

Also, let’s quickly review how Rob Grespi from www.KingForexSignals.com did yesterday. He had a great day yesterday; he took only two trades. The first one was good for about 28 pips, and the other was profitable for about 48 pips. He ended the day with about 76 profit pips profit which is pretty nice after 100 pips profit he had on the position trade the day before. This brought his performance for this month to 247 pips so far.

That’s all for tomorrow. I hope you will have a great day. Thank you!

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Hi there

I hope you had a great day. As you know we had no tradeable reports yesterday, so it was very slow day.

Rob Grespi from Kingforexsignals.com did not give any trades either because the market was simply not moving.

Believe it or not, but today we have no tradeable reports either. We do have German ZEW coming up at 5:00 am NY time, but this report hasn’t been moving too well in the last few months, so I am personally not going to trade it, and I am suggest you don’t trade it neither, just observe.

That’s all I have to say for today, Tuesday, but tomorrow, Wednesday, we have a few things going on. So wait for my email tomorrow, and hopefully we will have some trading opportunities on Wednesday.

To Our Success!
-Felix Homogratus

Hi there

I hope you had and still are having a very nice weekend Let’s first discuss what happened on Friday.

We had Non-Farm payroll coming out on Friday, which even though came out lower than expected, the deviation from expectations wasn’t big enough for a trade. I personally gave a couple of long trades on GBP/USD after the report to my forexdiamonds room, and we made a few pips, but officially this was a no trade, because it didn’t hit the triggers that I set. I suggest you still watch live trading video by going to this link: http://www.forexdiamonds.com/performance

Rob Grespi from kingforexsignals.com had a very nice day on Friday. He took 4 trades, 3 of them were winners, and one was a super small loser. He made overall +44 pips total for the day. You can watch his detailed performance and live trading videos by going to this link: http://www.kingforexsignals.com/tradedetails/0507

Let’s now talk about what’s going on tomorrow, Monday… Both Monday and Tuesday are relatively slow.

1. Monday, May 7th, 2007 (9:30 pm New York Time) AUSTRALIA
Tomorrow, we only have one report coming out, that I feel is worth watching and trading, and it’s Retail Sales out of Australia. Remember, Australia was ready to do another rate hike, but they hesitated, after CPI few weeks ago came out extremely low. Retail sales is pretty important, they can really forecast some future CPI readings, and therefore give glance into future interest rate decisions. Retail Sales are expected to come out at 0.5. If they come out at 1.0% or higher, it would be a very high reading, especially second month in a row, considering that previous month we had 0.9%, so AUD/USD may possibly go up by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If the retail sales come out at 0% or lower, that means that the retail sector either didn’t expand, or even contracted from previous month, so interest rate may be even longer stretch, and AUD/USD may possibly go down by 40 pips or more in the first hour of the report.

Belive it or not, but that’s all for tomorrow Remember, tomorrow is Monday, and we will be taking few more people for Secret News Weapon at a heavily discounted scholarship special. To learn more and sign up for the waiting list, please go to this link: https://www.secretnewsweapon.com/buy+it.html

Have a nice day

To Our Success!
-Felix Homogratus

1617 Broadway St., Suite 1001
New York, NY 10002
USA